By-Election Musings for Roscommon now that Ming is leaving us!

Withdrawal symptoms from the local authority counts were quickly cured by a day’s work in school. I heard all about 1 Direction, Cllr Valerie Byrne’s victory and even Seán Lenihan winning €25k with Club Rossie. These all made the headlines in my third class classroom this morning along with the appearance of front legs and tails getting smaller on our tadpoles!

Ming has just been elected in Castlebar. It’s now time to look at the future By-election in Roscommon. I have spent a car journey home from Elphin weighing it up in my head.  I have a few thoughts on it which others will probably disagree with. I believe Fianna Fáil are in the driving seat and as such I understand why Paddy Power has them at evens to take the seat. Independents are favourites at 5/6. I reckon if Fianna Fáil are serious about winning a seat back in Roscommon / South Leitrim they must open their minds to a new FF strategy.

After watching the Longford Westmeath by-election, I believe that the exclusion of Longford by parties was a mistake! As an observer of politics for many years, one of the greatest coups I’ve seen was the 3 candidate strategy to retain Bobby Molloy’s seat by the PDs in Galway West in 2002. Donal Lyons, Declan Mc Donnell and Noel Grealish ran as a three man team. Noel Grealish was the last man standing and is still today a TD representing Galway West.

I have a simple strategy for Fianna Fáil. If they want seats in future and in this By-election then just try this. Run two candidates, one in Leitrim and the other in Roscommon. The Roscommon candidate must be ready to run in the Roscommon Galway East new constituency. I reckon Ivan Connaughton is the candidate there. The chimney pots are numerous from Roscommon to Athlone and an Athleague based candidate is well located to cover two of the Roscommon Local Electoral Areas, if not all three.

Next up let’s look at Leitrim. Sinead Guckian from Annaduff is a good Councillor in Leitrim. She has a great pedigree and profile. Guckien is a potential Dáil candidate, and what better preparation than a run in a by-election.

They must work as a team, look for 1s and 2s  and by God they’ll be unstoppable!

Fine Gael are in such disarray that they only have two Councillors.  Micheal Creaton Loughglynn and Maura Hopkins (the chosen one it seems) on the Sligo border at Edmonstown near the Bishop’s Palace. I’m deliberately excluding the third FG councillor John Naughten brother of Independent TD Denis! Anyway who’d vote for Fine Gael now??  They’re 6/1 with Paddy Power by the way!

Last Friday was dubbed Independence / Independents Day. Of course there will be two or three of them. Will Ming have an endorsed candidate? Will Valerie Byrne run? Will Naughten have an endorsed candidate? Yes to all three I believe.

However Valerie Byrne will not be all 3.

 Denis will have a high profile candidate in the By-election!!   If Denis Naughten convinced Shane Curran to run how would he do?? I’d say he’d really put the cat among the pigeons. He’d be value at 5/6! From Castlerea, based in the South, known by all!!  I believe Naughten will have a high profile candidate but could it be Shane? Would it cause Denis a problem later?

What do we know? Well firstly this constituency will only last as long as this present Dáil. In the next General Election Ming’s candidate in Roscommon Galway will either be himself or Micheal Fitzmaurice or maybe the two of them???? Beirt?  Fine Gael will have it nigh impossible to take a seat!

You see I don’t buy into the idea that Feighan will be Ceann Comhairle for a number of reasons. Firstly Kenny is a member of the Dáil for almost 40 years and with that service he has a respect for the Oireachtas and the position of Chair of the Dáil. This is a most important position, as not alone does the Ceann Comhairle chair meetings of the Daíl,  but also exercises other duties by virtue of the position he holds.

In the absence or temporary incapacity of the President of Ireland, the Ceann Comhairle is a member of the Commission which exercises and performs the powers and functions conferred on the President. The Ceann Comhairle is also a member of the Council of State which aids and counsels the President in relation to the exercise and performance by her of certain powers. The Ceann Comhairle is ex officio Chairperson of the Commission for Public Service.

The question I’m posing is “if Enda considers Frank not good enough to chair an Oireachtas committee or be a Minister of State how is he good enough to be a Vice President?”  What about as a member of the Council of State?

Will Kathleen Shanagher run? What about Nigel Dineen? Of course they will, if Shanagher runs she’ll do well in Roscommon and the South of County. Nigel Dineen has proven his ability to get votes, has a high profile as a successful GAA manager and Roscommon GAA stock is very much on the up!

Labour, will John Kelly run?? He might, but all he’ll do is keep Maura Hopkins down in her Ballaghaderreen Bailiwick. Labour is a spoiled brand and I really think that the red rose is withered here in Roscommon.  That said under a new leader they would have a certain bounce!

Anyway Sinn Féin are a shrewd outfit. They’ll probably run one candidate. They know they’ll not take a seat this time so it’ll be steady, steady wins the race! I think  they’ll introduce a candidate for Roscommon! 2016 will be a flagship election for Sinn Féin and the party only have one Councillor, Michael Mulligan from Ballaghaderreen. Expect to see David McWeeney running here. We’ll all know him then for 2016 and the 2019 local elections!

Can Denis produce a high profile independent?? Will it be Cake? It’ll be someone and why not Shane? He seems to be talking the talk of late!!

The HAC what’ll happen there? 

Tony Ward former Mayor of Roscommon and Poll Topper in Athlone area is another possible candidate I suppose too. He'll definitely be interested and also will fare well in South not sure how well he's known above Roscommon town. 

At the end of the day I think momentum is with Fianna Fáil and I believe they’ll actually take the By-election seat if they play it smart! Can they be trusted to do that???

Today is the 26^th of May and no date available yet for a By-election! Early days! Come back in a few months and we’ll chat about it again!!