Thursday 27 November 2014

Twitter Followers at a Price!



It’s great what can be done with technology especially when it comes to communications. Twitter is tonight’s topic.

 “Hugh you have a nice few followers but I reckon if you bought a few thousand you’d get rakes more followers!”  This was the advice I was getting for about 6 months!  One fellow told me about his friend from Frenchpark who bought 10,000 and gets 10 followers a day! “When you have lots of followers people just follow!” Money makes money!  

Anyway I spoke to another friend in late June and said what I was being told. We agreed I should do an experiment and like all things to do with Lynn I forgot about it! More important things on my mind in July 14! 

Anyway in August I was chatting to that friend again and we said that we should give it a shot. So here’s what we did. I bought 3,000 followers for $5.00 or just over €3. Where could you go wrong at €3.00? Nothing could go wrong! 

Let me explain there are actually people who make a living from creating multiple twitter accounts and then selling them as followers. Twitter farmers we could call them. They breed these accounts and then harvest the crop i.e follow other accounts. They charge a dollar a thousand or even a euro. Handy money if you can get it.  

So I sent the money  to one of these farmers and waited and waited and then it started the followers arrived and I suddenly got 2,200 extra followers! So I was now down 800 that I had bought before I even started!  

So what!  I was up 2,200! Then it started!  I began to lose followers. I was at 3,400 and then it was 3,000 and next it was down to 1800 and they kept dropping away! 

Panic stations. Was I losing my genuine followers?? Need to be careful. So I started to watch my account. I signed up to unfollowers.com and discovered that these purchased followers were actually being suspended! (Twitter must not agree with “twitter farming”!)

So 100 days later I've less than 240 of these purchased followers left. I have increased my following but I think it’s due to what I’m saying and sharing! Lots of my new followers also retweet things that I’ve posted! 

Moral of the story, like Fine Gael and the” Facebook likes” they purchased.  I reckon it’s a) a waste of money b) a cause of distrust for genuine followers c) proof positive that Content is still the King.

 Anyway I’ll not be buying anymore! 


Saturday 11 October 2014

My Parish and how we voted!

I live in Loughglynn and we are a parish of three village units namely Loughglynn, Lisacul and Gorthaganny. We have 3 polling booths in the parish and this is the way we voted this year!


  Loughglynn Gortaganny Lisacul Parish 
Ivan Connaughton  FF 52 19 56 127
Emmet Corcoran - Ind 3 0 3 6
Tom Crosby - Ind       0 0 1 1
Mich Fitzmaurice - Ind   96 28 83 207
Des Guckian - Ind 0 0 1 1
Maura Hopkins - F G 80 11 80 171
John Kelly - Lab          97 17 115 229
Martin Kenny - S Féin 30 7 26 63
John McDermott - Ind 14 1 11 26
Gerry O'Boyle - Ind 2 0 0 2
         

We want Inexperience! Insiders not welcome! A question of trust!


It’s always sad to see something end and I suppose the opposite is true too. It nice to be at the start of something new!  Today we really saw the end of Tom Crosby as a political heavy weight.

A young “inexperienced” brat from Strokestown Emmett Corcoran has just beaten the experienced former Mayor of Roscommon Tom Crosby in the first count in Roscommon South Leitrim. 

A first time councillor from Ballaghaderreen in Maura Hopkins got a vote of 5593, A first time councillor from Glinsk just took a bigger vote of 6220  and the other first time councillor Ivan Connaughton just topped the poll with 7334.

  The system was broken and in fact the whole set up has been smashed but not by first timers no way it was smashed by “experienced bankers, politicians and experienced regulators” as Emmett told us on Vincent Browne on Tuesday night.

Tom fought this battle on his experience, Emmett on his inexperience! We, the country are fed up with how things were done. The Mc Nulty affair has displayed that Enda can do the same things as Bertie or Cowan. We’re fed up!


The parties are taking a hiding and Fianna Fáil are now probably going to go for Micheal Martin’s head as he’s the leader! Big mistake lads! You’re calling it wrong! Your problem is closer to home! The party people on the ground, the local organisation could be your downfall. The people you choose locally may be the issue. That’s not pointed at Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael it’s a global sweeping statement! 

Can you be trusted?? 

Count Roscommon South Leitrim


Turnout                33572
Spoiled                 262
Valid Poll               33572

Quota                   16656
Result

First Fifth sixth Seven
Ivan Connaughton  FF 7334 8863 10083 12050
Emmet Corcoran - Ind Elm 1262 0
Tom Crosby - Ind       Elm 1030 0
Mich Fitzmaurice - Ind   6220 9211 11722 14881
Des Guckian - Ind Elm 902 0
Maura Hopkins - F G 5593 7312 8476
John Kelly - Lab          Elm 2037 0
Martin Kenny - S Féin Elm 5906 7022
John McDermott - Ind Elm 2944 0
Gerry O'Boyle - Ind Elm 82 0



Sixth Count 
First Fifth sixth
Ivan Connaughton  FF 7334 8863 10083
Emmet Corcoran - Ind Elm 1262 0
Tom Crosby - Ind       Elm 1030 0
Mich Fitzmaurice - Ind   6220 9211 11722
Des Guckian - Ind Elm 902 0
Maura Hopkins - F G 5593 7312 8476
John Kelly - Lab          Elm 2037 0
Martin Kenny - S Féin Elm 5906 7022
John McDermott - Ind Elm 2944 0
Gerry O'Boyle - Ind Elm 82 0







Fifth Count


Ivan Connaughton  FF 7334 8863
Emmet Corcoran - Ind Elm 1262 0
Tom Crosby - Ind       Elm 1030 0
Mich Fitzmaurice - Ind   6220 9211
Des Guckian - Ind Elm 902 0
Maura Hopkins - F G 5593 7312
John Kelly - Lab          Elm 2037 0
Martin Kenny - S Féin 5906 7022
John McDermott - Ind Elm 2944 0
Gerry O'Boyle - Ind Elm 82 0




Fourth Count 



Ivan Connaughton - Fianna Fail  7334 168 7502 150 7652 194 7846
Emmet Corcoran - Independent  Elm 1262 43 1305 178 1483 -1483 0
Tom Crosby - Independent         Elm 1030 33 1063 -1063 0 0
Michael Fitzmaurice - Independent     6220 151 6371 254 6625 450 7075
Des Guckian - Independent     Elm 902 -902 0 0 0
Maura Hopkins - Fine Gael  5593 149 5742 122 5864 211 6075
John Kelly - Labour            elm 2037 23 2060 30 2090 54 2144
Martin Kenny - Sinn Fein  5906 278 6184 99 6283 164 6447
John McDermott - Independent  elm 2944 74 3018 169 3187 281 3468
Gerry O'Boyle - Independent  Elm 82 -82 0 0 0



Third Count





Ivan Connaughton - Fianna Fail  7334 168 7502 150 7652
Emmet Corcoran - Independent  Elm 1262 43 1305 178 1483
Tom Crosby - Independent         Elm 1030 33 1063 -1063 0
Michael Fitzmaurice - Independent     6220 151 6371 254 6625
Des Guckian - Independent     Elm 902 -902 0 0
Maura Hopkins - Fine Gael  5593 149 5742 122 5864
John Kelly - Labour            2037 23 2060 30 2090
Martin Kenny - Sinn Fein  5906 278 6184 99 6283
John McDermott - Independent  2944 74 3018 169 3187
Gerry O'Boyle - Independent  Elm 82 -82 0 0
























Second Count 


Ivan Connaughton - Fianna Fail  7334 168 7502
Emmet Corcoran - Independent  1262 43 1305
Tom Crosby - Independent         1030 33 1063
Michael Fitzmaurice - Independent     6220 151 6371
Des Guckian - Independent     Elm 902 -902 0
Maura Hopkins - Fine Gael  5593 149 5742
John Kelly - Labour            2037 23 2060
Martin Kenny - Sinn Fein  5906 278 6184
John McDermott - Independent  2944 74 3018
Gerry O'Boyle - Independent  Elm 82 -82 0


First Count 


Ivan Connaughton - Fianna Fail 7334
Emmet Corcoran - Independent 1262
Tom Crosby - Independent        1030
Michael Fitzmaurice - Independent    6220
Des Guckian - Independent    902
Maura Hopkins - Fine Gael 5593
John Kelly - Labour           2037
Martin Kenny - Sinn Fein 5906
John McDermott - Independent 2944
Gerry O'Boyle - Independent 82




The Slow Count


There was I on the road to the Hyde this morning and it as foggy as I've seen this year! Bye election should be sorted by 2 o clock I figured! 130 odd boxes should be handy enough, there’s only one seat! Anyway I was there for the Tally did my bit of mixing, chatting, renewing acquaintances. This is where I’m at total ease! I’m among a group of fellow junkies and we talk at a level that I can’t normally do. We know the importance of Geography, History all the things that can have an effect on votes! Pieces of paper draw a crowd as we look at the latest figures for the Tally.

Hugh “I was reading Rural Rossie great stuff keep it going”.  “What did Paddy Power do to you?” All these comments make a man feel good. Yeah I’m being read. Anyway as I left the Hyde to go home I started getting phone calls and people were cross because there was no count at 1:30!! Lads nothing to do with me! “Scotland stopped voting at 10pm and at 6am the following morning they had the result of their referendum! “ Why can’t the Republic sort themselves out?

It’s not just a Republic of Ireland thing either! I read a piece previously on the BBC website about the manual counting of votes system in Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland's chief electoral officer Graham Shields wants future elections to use an electronic counting system. He claims that there is technology that would allow the process to be completed in a matter of hours rather than days. "Mr Shields said the system allows ballots to be read and calculated by a computer instead of being counted by hand. He claims it had been used in Scottish local elections since 2007 and that it was "very, very efficient".

My proposal is we continue with Bertie’s pencil and paper but we use electronic counting of the votes. We can’t trust the voting machines at the moment. What we’ll get is, results with a paper trail, a quicker result and we’ll be able to stand over it. What more do we want?

Well I suppose the great thing we have in Ireland is common sense in elections. We have the “doubtful” votes pile which are checked by officials and candidates before they are judged to be spoiled votes. In any electronic counting system the votes that may be doubtful must be checked by humans as we do at the moment! (Can’t have a German type application of a black and white rule on doubtful votes.)

That was as far as I know the only issue Scotland has had with its system which it introduced in 2007!


Will Roscommon South Leitrim By-election be the last manual count in Ireland? I fear not. 

Tally of Roscommon South Leitrim Bye Election Votes



This is the tally figure however the consensus is that this is not an accurate Tally!  


Ivan Connaughton - Fianna Fail
7077
Michael Fitzmaurice - Independent   
6073
Martin Kenny - Sinn Fein
5677
Maura Hopkins - Fine Gael
5516
John McDermott - Independent
2964
John Kelly - Labour          
2011
Emmet Corcoran - Independent
1257
Tom Crosby - Independent       
1016
Des Guckian - Independent   
896
Gerry O'Boyle - Independent
81


How accurate we will see in before 4 o clock! 

Thursday 9 October 2014

Paddy Power’s influence on the election.


I’m as guilty as anyone else! I love numbers, I need numbers and when they’re hard to get I’ll use anything that’s there! Odds on elections are grand to chat about but they’re not scientific, or are they?


Lynn what are you on about? Well today at 5:30 I got a message from an old friend who messaged me on Facebook to say “There's some money gone on Connaughton today” so I looked and I saw that yeah the odds had changed and changed a lot. John Kelly had tumbled too but of course we had just tweeted the result of the election in my classroom today and you guessed it, Yeah Kelly topped the poll with 3rd and 4th class in Abbeycartron!! Markets had to be influenced!!


Ivan Connaughton - Fianna Fail 1/9
Michael Fitzmaurice - Independent 9/2
John Kelly - Labour 9/1
Marin Kenny - Sinn Fein 12/1
 Maura Hopkins - Fine Gael 14/1
John McDermott - Independent 20/1    
Des Guckian - Independent 25/1
Tom Crosby - Independent 33/1
Emmet Corcoran -Independent 40/1
Gerry O'Boyle - Independent 40/1
Denis O'Brien - Independent 50/1

Previously (last Friday) they were
Ivan Connaughton - Fianna Fail 4/9 
Michael Fitzmaurice - Independent 5/2        
John McDermott - Independent 5/1
Maura Hopkins - Fine Gael 7/1
Martin Kenny - Sinn Fein 9/1
John Kelly - Labour 16/1                  
Des Guckian - Independent 20/1      
Tom Crosby - Independent 25/1        
Gerry O'Boyle - Independent 40/1
Emmet Corcoran - Independent 40/1
Denis O'Brien - Independent 50/1


So why does this happen and does it matter? Well first of all money talks, so if money goes on to a candidate the price falls! It’s obvious enough! So what you say! Well it’s like this the media, print and broadcast are a lazy lot and all of us who have ever done a PR course have been told that! Remember what you were told about a press release? Well it’s all true.


When an interview happens, people are asked questions and we all like to answer the question  we are asked. (fact) To help our answer we use as much info as we can muster to make it sound credible and also to try and be correct. Paddy Power is quoting Joe Bloggs as hot favourite at 2/5 and Mary Snotts is a no hoper at 16/1. They then say "the bookie is rarely wrong in fact I don't know a poor one!!"


In this election there has been such a lack of information that all is being grasped. When a bookie puts a person at odds on then they are talked about, when a pundit is talking about a contest Paddy Power will be quoted, if you’re in the top four of the market you’ll be talked about. If your name is mentioned you’re on the path to success! We back winners, we like winners so when the wind is said to be in your sails it really is in your sails!! The ultimate  self-fulfilling prophecy!   



Candidates have spent €500 on worse things than bets on themselves! 

Wednesday 8 October 2014

TV3 Bye Election Debate



We all like Vincent Browne… don’t we? Well  I’ve a soft spot for Vincent anyway!  I was on his radio show four times and never fared out too badly!  #Vinb is a hashtag I regularly use and the search results associated with it can be great craic. https://twitter.com/search?f=realtime&q=%23vinb&src=typd


Last night was good, it was the Roscommon South Leitrim debate on TV3. I rushed home from the Roscommon GAA County Board meeting to watch this debate!


So what happened?


Well Tom Crosby told us he had experience and Emmet Corcoran told us that was part of the problem. Experienced bankers, regulators and politicians!! Vinnie joined in and said Bertie had experience, Cowan had and Mary Harney he claimed had experiences too! Vincent liked Corcoran!


Maura was on script and was trying to stick to it. Vinnie is not into prepared answers and likes an answer to his question! Connaughton had most to lose and he knew it. He played a blinder and stayed out of trouble! He was never going to win so he needed to play safe!


John Mc Dermott said his bit and was grand, John Kelly was strong and Browne seemed to have a bit of respect for him! Des Guckian spoke about “fracking” and also the need for a special EU Region to improve matters! We have one of those we call it the BMW. While talking about BMWs I suppose the line of the night came from Gerry O Boyle who told us he was “reared on  spuds and politics” I kid you not!  


Martin Kenny was safe as well, to be honest I don’t remember what he said. Fitz was strong, said his bit and like Ivan he escaped unscathed!



Corcoran won the night, won the debate and entertained us all. The only problem is the debate makes no difference nobody really cares and it’s still between Ivan Connaughton and Michael Fitzmaurice with Maura and Martin still in the game and Mc Dermott too is far from dead! 

Friday 3 October 2014

Week to the Election

I have been getting a lot of requests to write a bit about the election and I've been just watching what's been happening. Like everybody I'm waiting for the election to take off! Frankie tried to ignite it last week maybe he misunderstood Enda's remarks about “all shoulders to the wheel!” Shoulders Elbows all very similar on any football pitch in North Roscommon when Frank Feighan wore the colours of Boyle!!?? 

So we had the debate last Tuesday night on Prime time most people felt it was poor! Can't blame the candidates they can only play on the pitch provided. 10 people debating?? Is it possible?  No not ready. Tomorrow it's Radio one in Roscommon and tonight Friday at 9pm Paddy Power is quoting as follows: 

Ivan Connaughton - Fianna Fail 4/9  
Michael Fitzmaurice - Independent 5/2         
John McDermott - Independent 5/1
Maura Hopkins - Fine Gael 7/1
Martin Kenny - Sinn Fein 9/1
John Kelly - Labour 16/1                   
Des Guckian - Independent 20/1       
Tom Crosby - Independent 25/1        
Gerry O'Boyle - Independent 40/1
Emmet Corcoran - Independent 40/1
Denis O'Brien - Independent 50/1
 

As far as Paddy Power is concerned then it’s just Ivan Connaughton of Fianna Fail and Michael Fitzmaurice the Ming backed Independent. In reality that was my call at the start and I still think it will pan out that way! 

The people of South Leitrim are seriously fed up as they are not really getting any of the attention. The issues to date are "Water" "Hospital" and it’s all about Roscommon! What about John McDermott of the Hospital Action Committee I expect him to poll very well. John was maybe a lucky man to have been elbowed a few times last week!! 

Now let’s get realistic Martin Kenny of Sinn Fein is fifth in the betting yet it’s just himself and Des Guckian from Leitrim. Sinn Féin are popular! Maura Hopkins of Fine Gael, has she a hope? This time no, but next time maybe! Maura is making a fantastic impression on all she meets. A wonderful personality I’m told. She and John Kelly are both from Ballaghaderreen and will cover each other well. Maybe they’ll transfer well to each other and which ever goes first will feed the other a massive transfer!
 At the end of the day Fianna Fáil are like a championship team that’s peaking for semi final and the final is yet to come where as Fitzmaurice is like a team with players recovering from injury. Getting stronger by the day! If the election was today Ivan would be the TD however we have to wait another week. Fitz is coming and coming fast! Will the week be enough? Too much? We shall see! 

Watch Kenny and Hopkins! they're not as out of it as PP might suggest. Mc Dermott to shock, but Fitz and Connaughton to go to the wire??? 

The others in the race are all doing well, however for a lot it’s a profile building operation. This is like the M50  it brings you to a lot of different roads but never to  your actual destination. 

Who knows? That’s why we love elections!! More to follow if you want!! Please comment below! 

Wednesday 28 May 2014

Whats wrong with our counting system?

Today is Wednesday evening and it really looks like we’ll not have a result from Midlands North West Constituency until Friday morning! I’m hearing that the Germans had the results from 30 million voters very quickly. They would wouldn't they! Bet there was no craic at their count!!

Anyway, regardless of everything, there is obviously a serious problem in Ireland with the preparation of results from our elections! We have a wonderful system of Proportional Representation using a single transferable vote which provides for   great fun and entertainment! As an admirer of it I want the blood sport to continue. However by the same token I realise the system is damaged. We probably should improve it! Not for the Germans, nor for that matter the benefit of any nation, other than ourselves! We deserve it, because as a nation, we are politically more savvy than most. Some will correctly say, “our counts should be primarily about getting results.” “To hell with the fun! “ (German influence again!!)

There is a feeling out there that we are presenting ourselves poorly to our neighbours in Europe and we are becoming the laughing stock of Europe. The D4 heads are worried about us and how we appear! So what? We had a leader one time who tried to look the business in Paris with his Charvet shirts etc etc! Part of the problem lads. Appearance over substance!

It’s not just a Republic of Ireland thing either! I read a piece recently on the BBC website about the manual counting of votes system in Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland's chief electoral officer Graham Shields wants future elections to use an electronic counting system. He claims that there is technology that would allow the  process to be completed in a matter of hours rather than days. "Mr Shields said the system allows ballots to be read and calculated by a computer instead of being counted by hand. He claims it had been used  in Scottish local elections since 2007 and that it was "very, very efficient".

The system would he claims be “a bit more expensive than running a manual count". I have a fear that we have become too monetary in our outlook . Money talks!

Now back to reality what did Bertie say? Over seven years ago “ Ireland is the laughing stock of Europe because voters still use pencils in elections, an "embarrassed" Taoiseach Bertie Ahern  told the Dáil!! If that’s all that was embarrassing the yellow trouser wearing Taoiseach we were so lucky weren't we! What about the financial crisis?? What about meltdown, free fall?? No, pencils, pencils yeah the good old HB Faber and Castell pencil is what upset Bertie!!  

The children in my class would answer “Sir, solution, what’s the solution to this problem you pose?” We know that problems are only things we need to solve, be they, how to change the tadpoles water without losing any tadpoles or even how do we share 47 buns between 7 people? Life is full of problems which we love to highlight, solve them now that’s another story!

In fairness to Bertie he did propose a solution, in fact Martin Cullen was left holding the Noel Dempsey baby! Yes those wonderful electronic voting machines! If I’m correct in my recollection, Noel Dempsey as Minister for Environment and Local Government put the wheels in motion and Martin Cullen followed it through! I have a figure of €54 million in my mind for those things! I think they realised less than a million when they were finally scrapped!

The problem was that they could not be guaranteed to be safe from tampering.   They could not produce a printout so the votes/results could be double-checked. In a nation where the electorate are politically savvy that’s a kind of important issue that needs to be resolved before any tender is agreed forget about contract signed!

 I was at a road show in Dublin Castle years ago to see them in operation! They looked the business however like lots from that era it was appearance over substance! Fur coat.. you might say!
So solve it Rural Rossie!

Well firstly we have wonderful counters and returning officers in the country who work loyally and honestly at all counts! They put in a massive effort and as one reminded me. “Hugh I have to think of my own job, I was here on 2 days annual leave” She is a staff member of the Courts Service and as the recount was becoming obvious she was unable to commit. (Scales  of Justice must balance too). These counts are run by volunteers and it takes time. They do a great job as it’s the political masters who must put the system in place.

My proposal is we continue with Bertie’s pencil and paper but we use electronic counting of the votes. We can’t trust the voting  machines at the moment. What we’ll get is, results with a paper trail, a quicker result and we’ll be able to stand over it. What more do we want?

Well I suppose the great thing we have in Ireland is common sense in elections. We have the “doubtful” votes pile which are checked by officials and candidates before they are judged to be spoilt votes. In any electronic counting system the votes that may be doubtful must be checked by humans as we do at the moment! (Can’t have a German type application of a black and white rule on doubtful votes.)

That was as far as I know the only issue Scotland has had with its system which it introduced in 2007!

Will Roscommon South Leitrim By-election be the last manual count in Ireland???


Nien! I hope not! 

(Revised! First Draft was too wordy! Second Draft hard to read and third still not correct! )    

Tuesday 27 May 2014

Harkin to make it!



Since 1999 I have been voting for Marian Harkin and for years before that I was an admirer of her. I remember her for many years on  Developing the West Together, which evolved into the Council for the West, of which she became chairperson.  Sadly in 1999 she lost out to Dana in a European Election, Ming lost that day too! We saw sense in 2004 and sent her to Europe. This week we may have really seen sense and sent them both to Brussels!

Marian  has never let us down and is regarded as the most hardworking MEP out there. She is now fighting for her political life but I’m confident she’ll survive. 

I’m sure that Byrne will transfer well to Cope he has 64,057 votes after all. Cope needs them all. Could he get 60% yes he could of course! And this would be a great transfer. 

However it would only mean that Cope gets 39,000 votes that’s him at around 107,000 votes. Harkin has to get a few votes and so does Carty.

 Carty gets elected and Bingo his surplus which came from FF will go to Harkin.

Why vote FF 1 SF2 and back to FF?? Will not happen. Hence I say Marian will continue her great work!!

COUNT 6 –
MIDLANDS NORTH WEST
QUOTA 129,290
CARTHY - 127,135                                        
THE COPE - 68,440

HARKIN - 99, 843

64,057    To be shared out     

Monday 26 May 2014

3rd Count Midlands Northwest



Counting is suspended in Castlebar until 9am tomorrow.

State of things is that Ming is elected, Carty about 9,000 short of quota. Mullen is eliminated and his 41,000 votes are being distributed.  I predict Marian Harkin will get a good lift from Mullen over 15,000, Higgins will also benefit as will Cope.

My call is if Byrne could ever get ahead of Pat the Cope Gallagher then Harkin would be safe. Harkin needs 50,000 votes and has Higgins and Mullen to feed her. However Byrne will transfer very well to Cope and Higgins and Mullen will also give him transfers. This will be a dog fight but at the moment I have a crazy feeling that Harkin may be ok.

I’d imagine that Harkin will close the gap on Mc Guinness and I can’t see Higgins transferring 50% to Mc Guinness.

Carthy still waiting for almost 10,000 votes too.



3rd count 
- Byrne 58505, 
Carthy 120723, 
Gallagher 62071,
Harkin 77798, J
Higgins 43292, 
McGuinness 102025, 


To be transferred Mullen 41164.

By-Election Musings for Roscommon now that Ming is leaving us!




Withdrawal symptoms from the local authority counts were quickly cured by a day’s work in school. I heard all about 1 Direction, Cllr Valerie Byrne’s victory and even Seán Lenihan winning €25k with Club Rossie. These all made the headlines in my third class classroom this morning along with the appearance of front legs and tails getting smaller on our tadpoles!

Ming has just been elected in Castlebar. It’s now time to look at the future By-election in Roscommon. I have spent a car journey home from Elphin weighing it up in my head.  I have a few thoughts on it which others will probably disagree with. I believe Fianna Fáil are in the driving seat and as such I understand why Paddy Power has them at evens to take the seat. Independents are favourites at 5/6. I reckon if Fianna Fáil are serious about winning a seat back in Roscommon / South Leitrim they must open their minds to a new FF strategy.

After watching the Longford Westmeath by-election, I believe that the exclusion of Longford by parties was a mistake! As an observer of politics for many years, one of the greatest coups I’ve seen was the 3 candidate strategy to retain Bobby Molloy’s seat by the PDs in Galway West in 2002. Donal Lyons, Declan Mc Donnell and Noel Grealish ran as a three man team. Noel Grealish was the last man standing and is still today a TD representing Galway West.

I have a simple strategy for Fianna Fáil. If they want seats in future and in this By-election then just try this. Run two candidates, one in Leitrim and the other in Roscommon. The Roscommon candidate must be ready to run in the Roscommon Galway East new constituency. I reckon Ivan Connaughton is the candidate there. The chimney pots are numerous from Roscommon to Athlone and an Athleague based candidate is well located to cover two of the Roscommon Local Electoral Areas, if not all three.

Next up let’s look at Leitrim. Sinead Guckian from Annaduff is a good Councillor in Leitrim. She has a great pedigree and profile. Guckien is a potential Dáil candidate, and what better preparation than a run in a by-election.

They must work as a team, look for 1s and 2s  and by God they’ll be unstoppable!

Fine Gael are in such disarray that they only have two Councillors.  Micheal Creaton Loughglynn and Maura Hopkins (the chosen one it seems) on the Sligo border at Edmonstown near the Bishop’s Palace. I’m deliberately excluding the third FG councillor John Naughten brother of Independent TD Denis! Anyway who’d vote for Fine Gael now??  They’re 6/1 with Paddy Power by the way!

Last Friday was dubbed Independence / Independents Day. Of course there will be two or three of them. Will Ming have an endorsed candidate? Will Valerie Byrne run? Will Naughten have an endorsed candidate? Yes to all three I believe.

However Valerie Byrne will not be all 3.

 Denis will have a high profile candidate in the By-election!!   If Denis Naughten convinced Shane Curran to run how would he do?? I’d say he’d really put the cat among the pigeons. He’d be value at 5/6! From Castlerea, based in the South, known by all!!  I believe Naughten will have a high profile candidate but could it be Shane? Would it cause Denis a problem later?

What do we know? Well firstly this constituency will only last as long as this present Dáil. In the next General Election Ming’s candidate in Roscommon Galway will either be himself or Micheal Fitzmaurice or maybe the two of them???? Beirt?  Fine Gael will have it nigh impossible to take a seat!

You see I don’t buy into the idea that Feighan will be Ceann Comhairle for a number of reasons. Firstly Kenny is a member of the Dáil for almost 40 years and with that service he has a respect for the Oireachtas and the position of Chair of the Dáil. This is a most important position, as not alone does the Ceann Comhairle chair meetings of the Daíl,  but also exercises other duties by virtue of the position he holds.

In the absence or temporary incapacity of the President of Ireland, the Ceann Comhairle is a member of the Commission which exercises and performs the powers and functions conferred on the President. The Ceann Comhairle is also a member of the Council of State which aids and counsels the President in relation to the exercise and performance by her of certain powers. The Ceann Comhairle is ex officio Chairperson of the Commission for Public Service.

The question I’m posing is “if Enda considers Frank not good enough to chair an Oireachtas committee or be a Minister of State how is he good enough to be a Vice President?”  What about as a member of the Council of State?

Will Kathleen Shanagher run? What about Nigel Dineen? Of course they will, if Shanagher runs she’ll do well in Roscommon and the South of County. Nigel Dineen has proven his ability to get votes, has a high profile as a successful GAA manager and Roscommon GAA stock is very much on the up!

Labour, will John Kelly run?? He might, but all he’ll do is keep Maura Hopkins down in her Ballaghaderreen Bailiwick. Labour is a spoiled brand and I really think that the red rose is withered here in Roscommon.  That said under a new leader they would have a certain bounce!

Anyway Sinn Féin are a shrewd outfit. They’ll probably run one candidate. They know they’ll not take a seat this time so it’ll be steady, steady wins the race! I think  they’ll introduce a candidate for Roscommon! 2016 will be a flagship election for Sinn Féin and the party only have one Councillor, Michael Mulligan from Ballaghaderreen. Expect to see David McWeeney running here. We’ll all know him then for 2016 and the 2019 local elections!

Can Denis produce a high profile independent?? Will it be Cake? It’ll be someone and why not Shane? He seems to be talking the talk of late!!

The HAC what’ll happen there? 

Tony Ward former Mayor of Roscommon and Poll Topper in Athlone area is another possible candidate I suppose too. He'll definitely be interested and also will fare well in South not sure how well he's known above Roscommon town. 

At the end of the day I think momentum is with Fianna Fáil and I believe they’ll actually take the By-election seat if they play it smart! Can they be trusted to do that???


Today is the 26th of May and no date available yet for a By-election! Early days! Come back in a few months and we’ll chat about it again!! 

Sunday 25 May 2014

Boyle Result


Boyle Final Result


Byrne (Ind)
Cummins (FF)   
Doherty (FF)
Hopkins M (FG)
Mulligan M (SF) 
Murphy E (FF) 





 




First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh  Eight
Elected  Byrne (Ind)  1347 1442 1461 1578 1619 1777 1643 1643
Callaghan (FG)  Elim 592 606 650 0 0 0 0 0
Coleman (Ind)  Elim  140 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crosby (Ind)  Elim 1062 1107 1112 1144 1161 1207 1230 1268
Elected  Cummins (FF)   Elected 1512 1534 1582 1628 1643 1643 1643 1643
Elected  Doherty (FF)  1068 1080 1131 1152 1176 1296 1332 1608
Frain (Lab)  Elim  587 606 652 696 0 0 0
Garvey (FG)   Elim 674 680 682 739 754 0 0
Hopkins C (FG)  Elim 731 733 734 752 767 929 948 0
Elected  Hopkins M (FG)  840 867 916 1039 1287 1400 1413 1729
Elected  Mulligan M (SF)   1251 1283 1362 1406 1614 1639 1640 1727
Elected  Murphy E (FF)   1150 1164 1178 1289 1310 1381 1406 1463
O'Beirne (Ind)   Elim  182 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sampey (FF)   Elim  365 374 0 0 0 0 0
11501
 Quota  1643